Can the Patriots Get Revenge?

In a word: no.

I've heard this game called "Revenge Bowl." And even before last weekend's Conference Championship games, I knew several Pats fans who were craving a Patriots/Giants matchup because they wanted "payback," or "revenge."

But win or lose, the Patriots can't get revenge. The team can't, the coaches can't, and the fans can't.

Even if the Patriots win, we'll never forget what could have been but wasn't in 2007. I'm sure the team and players have moved on from what happened, that's their job. They've been able to focus on playing the next game, not reliving Super Bowl XLII. But we as fans are still living February 3, 2008 over and over again.

There have been comparisons to the Red Sox in 2003 and 2004. Since the Sox won the World Series in 2004, and went through the same Yankees that defeated them in '03, we no longer feel excruciating pain when Grady Little is mentioned. We don't cringe when we think about Giambi's solo homeruns, Mussina's relief effort, or Posada's double. We don't really think of those plays at all. The memory has been mostly erased, and replaced with the euphoria of winning in 2004 and fond recollections of moments like Roberts' stolen base and Damon's grand-slam.

Would a Super Bowl win cause the same acceptance, the same selective amnesia? Would we forget Asante Samuel's near interception? Or David Tyree's miraculous catch? How about Ellis Hobbs getting burnt like toast by Plaxico Burress? If the Patriots win on Sunday, would we forget these plays?

No.

The difference between the 2003/2004 Red Sox, and the 2007/2011 Patriots is simple. The Red Sox hadn't gone 162-0 in the regular season. Their goal was a World Series title. Which they accomplished the next year, thus achieving redemption.

The Patriots were going after a perfect 19-0 season in '07, which would have been the biggest and most impressive achievement for a sports team in American history. This year, the stakes are not as high. A Super Bowl title is still an amazing accomplishment, and not to be diminished in any way. But Don Shula won't lose any sleep over it.

There is no opportunity for revenge here, not for the players (only 7 Patriots return from that '07 team anyway), or the coaches, or the fans. The Patriots cannot achieve what they came so painfully close to achieving in the 2007 season.

By the same token, what the Giants did cannot be taken away from them, for their players, their coaches, their fans. They won Super Bowl XLII, and nothing that happens in Indianapolis can change that. It's in the past and there is no chance of redemption, revenge, or forgetting it happened altogether.

The haunting memories of Super Bowl XLII will remain in Patriot fans' memories forever. No matter the outcome of this Super Bowl, they cannot be erased. But, they can be joined by new memories, positive memories. There'll be no revenge. If the Patriots win, though, the memories of pain from 2007 will be joined with fresh, happy memories. And these new memories will temper the old ones. Like dipping spicy wings in bleu cheese.

So if you're a Patriots fan, don't watch the game on Sunday thinking about "revenge" for 2007. Because even if the Pats win, you'll be disappointed. Just hope they win so you can think about a great 2011 season.

-The Commodore

Terrell Suggs: One of my New Favorite Players

There was some discussion this week about a scoreboard error at Gillette Stadium which made Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff think it was the wrong down. This not only shook up his pre-kick routine on the sideline, it also seemed to force him to rush his lining up for a 32 yard field goal. A field goal he famously missed.

There was an attempt by some to turn this into SpyGate 2.0. It's being called ScoreboardGate. And one Ravens coach (Randy Brown, the Ravens' kicking consultant) when asked about the possibility of the Patriots intentionally sowing confusion said "I don't think you can rule anything out in New England, can you?"

The story never took off, despite considerable effort from the bombastic and outlandish wing of the sports media. Outside of Boston, some people tried to make a name for themselves by spewing innuendo, and implying some scoreboard trickery. And inside of Boston, fans and media stalwartly defended their team against an attack that never really came.

WEEI.com's headline, for instance, read "Ravens blame scoreboard for missed kick." Which wasn't true at all. The Ravens didn't make any assertion. The aforementioned Brown was led to say what he said. Which was kind of stupid, but the kicking consultant is hardly the voice for the entire Ravens organization. And head coach John Harbaugh called the whole notion of foul play "nonsense." None of the Ravens made accusations. All accusations were made by sports media people, who then tried to generate a story about the accusations that they themselves made. Sort of like accusing someone of being an alien, then referring to them as an "alleged alien."

The media tried to make a story out of nothing, but their wheels never got any traction. Mainly because despite the confusion, Cundiff should have still made the kick. And also because any sensible person could realize that the scoreboard's error was due to miscommunication over a ruling on Anquan Boldin's fumble out of bounds, which brought the ball back to where he last controlled it, not where it left the field of play. Moreover, the circumstances were so weird that the notion of premeditation was absurd.

Imagine Belichick telling a scoreboard operator, that just in case the Ravens fumbled a ball out of bounds past a first down marker, to screw up on the down and distance, thus confusing the placekicker. That's a little far-fetched, even for the Arlen Specters of the world. And he's the guy who came up with the Magic Bullet Theory.

Terrell Suggs had the best dismissal of this non-story, when Skip Bayless tried to jumpstart the conspiracy theories.

I'm glad Suggs called out him out. But asking Skip Bayless not to be a douchebag is like asking water not to be wet.

Even after Bayless tries and fails to get Suggs to accuse the Patriots of cheating (using a gentle sounding euphemism like "home-cooking"), he then tries to get Suggs to badmouth his own coach. He tries to start one fire, then moves on to start another.

Bayless is a tool. And that's why he has a job. Which makes him an even bigger tool. And makes people who watch him, even if they hate him, tools. Because people do like to watch him be a douchebag, and that's why he gets paid. And that pisses me off.

I want a "Be an Analyst, Don't be a Douchebag" t-shirt. Of course Bayless is such a tool that he'd probably be the one selling them.

-The Commodore

Patriots 23, Ravens 20

The defense won this game. The defense and Billy Cundiff. It certainly wasn't the offense that won this game for the Pats. While I don't think Brady "sucked pretty badly," he wasn't good. The Patriots lost the turnover battle, Flacco in many ways had a better game than Brady, the Ravens accumulated more yards, and held the ball longer. But the Pats defense made some big plays in big moments and that's why the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl.

The defense did allow a pair of token touchdown drives, struggling to contain Rice and giving up chunks of yardage in the air.

But when Woodhead fumbled a kickoff return on the 28, the defense held Baltimore to a field goal (which gave the Ravens a 4 point lead instead of an 8 point lead). Spikes' interception might have been a big play if Brady didn't throw a pick a few seconds later.

In the 4th, the Ravens had a 3rd and 3 on the Patriots' 30 (48 yard field goal range). Wilfork stuffed Ray Rice for a 3 yard loss, and Baltimore was forced to go for it on 4th and 6 instead of kicking a field goal. The Pats did not allow the Ravens to convert that 4th down thanks to good coverage and pressure from the aforementioned Wilfork.

The offense had a chance run out the clock late but went 3 and out. The defense did allow a big 29 yard Anquan Boldin reception, which put the Ravens in field goal range. Then Sterling Moore saved the game by breaking up a pass in the end zone, then deflected the next pass. So at the very least, the defense preserved a tie.

Billy Cundiff did the rest.

The Patriots' offense wasn't bad all game. They just couldn't come up with many big plays. They struggled in the Red Zone, the Ravens got timely pressure on Brady, then there were the turnovers. Brady threw 2 picks, he also had one called back because of an illegal contact penalty, and he threw another one after an encroachment flag. He was not that sharp. He also missed a wide open Gronkowski and what would have been a touchdown in the 1st quarter. He missed a number of passes, and frequently threw into double coverage.

The Pats' best player had his worst game of the season, but because of Wilfork, Spikes, Moore, and Ellis, the Pats still won. And Brady will get a chance to redeem himself against the Giants.

Longest two weeks of the year. Let's party.

-The Commodore

Patriots/Ravens Preview

This is the 6th time the Pats have been in the AFC Championship in the Belichick-Brady era. Think about that. 6 times since 2000. Before the B-B epoch (1960-1999), the Pats had reached the AFC/AFL title game a total of 3 times.

Last week, the Patriots were fortunate enough to face the #12 seed in the playoff tournament. They also played the worst QB in the playoffs. And maybe that good fortune has extended into the AFC Championship game. Joe Flacco is the worst QB remaining in the playoffs. 20 touchdowns and 12 picks in the regular season. An 80.9 rating, which puts him 18th in the NFL, between Kevin Kolb and Carson Palmer.

But you don't need a great QB to win a playoff game. Just ask Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Or ask the Ravens, for that matter. The Ravens have an excellent chance in this game, although it all depends on one thing. Can they get to Brady?

The Ravens were tied for 3rd in sacks with 48. Suggs had 14 on his own. They can get pressure on Brady. Which means the Patriots will have to rely on guys like Welker and Gronkowski to get open quickly. They'll also need that offensive line to play one of its best games of the season.

If the Ravens do get pressure on Brady and keep the Patriots' offense in check, they can run the ball, they can play possession football, and they can squeeze out a win.

It's tough to respect Flacco, though. It seems like if the Patriots go up by even 4, then Flacco will find some way to screw up.

This game will be tough for Brady and the offense to rack up an absurd number of points. But it'll also be tough for Flacco and the Ravens to do similar. I think the Patriots will win this in a tight contest.

27-20 Pats.

-The Commodore

Patriots 45, Broncos 10

I tried finding an appropriate 3:63 Bible verse (Brady threw for 363 yards), and the best I could find was: Look at them! Sitting or standing, they mock me in their songs. (Lamentations 3:63). And maybe that can be about how much hype Tim Tebow got leading up to this game, and how much people forgot that Tom Brady is a pretty good QB.

All season, the Patriots have won and lost based on the performance of their offense. Their defense isn't good enough to win games when Brady struggles or turns the ball over. On the other hand, the offense is potent enough to win games on its own, even when the defense is terrible. Saturday night, the offense was at its best.

Brady was nearly perfect. His one interception was the only blemish on his performance. 5 touchdowns in the first half, 6 overall. He completed over 3/4 of his passes. He had fewer incompletions (8) than Tebow had completions (9).

One amazing stat struck me. The Patriots were 3 of 6 on 3rd down. What amazes me is that the Patriots got to 3rd down only 6 times. They got 31 first downs. That means that 25 times they didn't even get to 3rd down before getting a new 1st down (they got 3 1st downs from penalties). In other words, even if the Pats had been playing with CFL rules and only getting 3 downs per series, they'd have still moved the chains with regularity.

The line protected Brady all night. 0 sacks. That was a huge reason for Brady's monster stats. When Brady did have some pressure on him, he wasn't able to fully step into his throws, and that's the only time the Patriots' drives sputtered and stalled. For the most part, though, the line gave him time to find open receivers, and space to step into throws.

If not for Brady, Aaron Hernandez would have been the clear star of the game. He caught 4 passes for 55 yards and a TD. He ran for 61 yards. And he had a tackle. That's a diverse night. He left the game early but all reports say that he's alright.

Using him as a runningback was ingenious in its simplicity. When an opponent sees no RBs in the Patriots' huddle, they might go with a lighter personnel package with more DBs, and fewer big guys up front. Then Hernandez lines up in the backfield and the Pats run the ball against a defense designed to stop the pass. So simple, which is why it's so smart.

Hernandez did lose a handle on the ball twice, which makes me nervous. He juggled an exchange from Brady, and lost a ball after being downed by contact. His ball control isn't 100%. He's not Tiki Barber in the early 2000s, but it's something to note.

Gronkowski should endorse a line of vacuum cleaners. Everything that enters his airspace gets sucked in. Bibi Jones can be in the commercials with him for similar reasons.

The defense did well. The only touchdown they allowed came when the Broncos got the ball on the Pats' 24. But let's not compare this unit to 2003 and 2004. The Patriots' offense shot out to a big lead, and the Broncos have one of the worst passers in the NFL. When down by two touchdowns, simply not throwing interceptions isn't good enough.

How do you stop Tebow from his miraculous 4th quarter comebackes? You start the 4th quarter with a 42-10 lead.

The Patriots demonstrated why the option is not a viable NFL offense. Defenses are too fast for the backs to turn the corner. And they're too disciplined and coached too well to make mistakes. They know their assignments and containments.

The Pats' D-line got excellent penetration up the middle, as well as even pressure on each flank. That prevented Tebow from rolling out, which is when he's most dangerous. It also meant that when the Broncos ran the option, they couldn't cut back because Wilfork was already through the line and chasing the play from behind. Tebow was sacked 5 times, the Pats had 10 tackles for a loss, plus that 1st quarter strip-sack.

The effect of negative plays is always harsh on an offense. But on an offense that struggles to move the ball as much as Denver's, negative plays are murder.

The Pats played much better than they've played in their past two postseasons. There were no fake punts. In fact the Patriots' special teams executed very well. There were a few mistakes, but they were quickly atoned for.

Nobody's perfect. But Brady came pretty close.

The Pats face the Ravens next week. The other two offensive juggernauts - the Saints and Packers - are out. The Pats are unique among the NFL's final four. Which means either that they're the best of the offense-heavy teams, or were fortunate to play the Denver Broncos.

How weird is this? The Pats are in the AFC Championship and they still haven't beaten a team with a winning record.

Pats vs. Ravens, Sunday afternoon at 3. I'm excited. Let's party.

-The Commodore

Patriots/Broncos Preview

I finally figured out why Tebow is such a big story. He was an underdog, who already had believers/fans before he started "beating the odds." So he has the appeal of an underdog, but already had legions of supporters. Which is abnormal. Most underdogs come from nowhere with no fans. Anyway, that's my short explanation of the Tebow phenomenon, at least the core of it.

To the actual game, which I know is a weird thing to talk about this week.

The Patriots saw what Tebow did the Steelers on Sunday. Rather, they saw what the Steelers' defense let Tebow do to them. They will not let that happen again. They're not going to give Tebow man coverage on deep routes. They're not going to bring safeties up to the line. They're going to give the Broncos 6-12 yard curls, as they've given to every team this year. And Tebow will hit some. He might even hit a few in a row. But it'll be tough for him to repeatedly move up and down the field with just these intermediate passes. He's not consistently accurate enough.

And while the Patriots' defense has allowed 4,703 passing yards (2nd worst), they've "only" allowed 26 passing touchdowns (10th worst). They don't allow many big passing plays. Their longest allowed was a 58 yarder. They keep the ball in front of them. The Pats' defense also improves in the Red Zone. The Broncos' offense actually got worse in the Red Zone last week.

Denver can run the ball well. And Tebow typically doesn't turn it over. So the Patriots have to pressure them to score, to keep up.

That's why the Patriots offense will determine this game. If they can protect Brady, if the receivers and tight-ends can get separation, and if Brady does his job, then the Patriots win. I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but this is a 13-3 team against an 8-8 team. A 13-3 team that beat the same 8-8 team on the road, and now they're at home. If the Pats execute, they win.

What will the Pats offense try to do? Hernandez had a great game back in Denver. Look for he, Branch, and occasionally Ochocinco to be cutting across the deeper parts of Denver's defense. And ideally, that will create space underneath for Welker, even some passes RBs. Denver's defense has a few talented pieces, and a few not so talented pieces. The Patriots will use their extensive arsenal of weapons to get the matchups they want.

Denver's only hope on defense is to pressure Brady.

So the Pats' keys to victory will be:

#1:Protect Brady

#2: Be yourselves on offense

#3: Prevent the big plays on defense

I think they'll do all these. It'll be a close game at first, with the Pats pulling away in the second half. Patriots 38, Broncos 24.

-The Commodore

Tebow's Coming to Foxborough

The Broncos beat a depleted Steelers team last night in dramatic fashion. The first ever overtime of "each team gets a possession, unless..." ended with the unless part coming true. And now the 4th seeded 8-8 Broncos are coming to Foxborough to play Saturday night.

This is the best possible matchup for the Patriots. And while we shouldn't underestimate Denver, and the Pats obviously have to execute in order to win this game, the Broncos are who they are. They lost 8 games. They backed into the playoffs. They were thoroughly beaten when the Pats went to Denver.

I do have to say that the Broncos' offensive scheme has improved. They're getting better at putting Tebow in no-decision situations. Like throwing deep. He doesn't have to worry about finding the open man or going through progressions. The decision has already been made for him by the structure of the play.

Another interesting storyline of this game is that Josh McDaniels, the man who drafted Tebow as head coach of the Broncos, will be working for the Patriots as a newly hired offensive assistant.

It's almost worth the endless, insufferable Tebow ball-washing that will be all over ESPN this week.

-The Commodore

Who Do You Want the Patriots to Face?

If Belichick were asked this question, I think he'd say something like "We'll face who we have to face. Whoever it will be will be a good football team. Tom Brady is our quarterback." And that's sensible. But it's hard to passively watch this weekend's Wild Card round without thinking about who you'd prefer the Pats to face on the 14th.

Here are the scenarios:

If Cincinnati beats Houston, then the Patriots face Cincinnati. No matter what else happens.

If Houston beats Cincinnati, the Patriots face the winner of the Denver/Pittsburgh game.

So of the three, who is the best matchup for the Pats?

The answer is Denver. The Broncos are the only AFC playoff team that the Patriots beat. They're also, without much doubt, the worst team in the AFC playoffs. A token 8-8 AFC West team. And they don't matchup well with the Pats.

The Patriots defense can't defend against the pass. The Broncos can't pass the ball. So while the Broncos would be able to run around and accumulate yardage, they wouldn't be able to make significant gains in the air. They'd put up a few points, but it's tough to consistently drive the ball 80 yards and score with just a running game.

Simply put, Denver's biggest offensive weakness makes the Patriots' biggest defensive weakness a non-factor. So then it's a great New England offense facing an inconsistent and exploitable Denver defense. I'll take Brady in that bout.

Unfortunately, the Broncos are so bad that it's unlikely they'll survive against the Steelers. So would you rather see the Pats play Pittsburgh or Cincinnati?

It's easy to answer with Cincinnati. After all, the Steelers beat the Pats. The Bengals are 9-7. We don't see them very often, don't know much about them and, well, they're the Bengals.

They were 0-7 against playoff teams, 9-0 against non-playoff teams. Andy Dalton might not be an MVP candidate, but I'm sure the Pats' secondary can make him look like one. How well would their defense do against Brady? That's the key question.

They had 45 sacks. They have a few guys who can get to the QB. Their passing defense was 9th in the NFL. They only allowed 211.6 yards per game. So they could give trouble to the Patriots' offense.

Still, they can turn the ball over. Andy Dalton is not a proven commodity. I think Brady can beat their defense for enough points to win.

So I'd love to see Tebow and the Broncos come to Foxborough. Failing that, I'd prefer Cincinnati over Pittsburgh. But not by much.

The Pats lost 25-17 in Pittsburgh in October. Ironically, it was perhaps the Pats' defense best game as they repeatedly stood firm in the Red Zone, keeping the Patriots in the game. The Steelers defense didn't let Brady move the ball at all. The Pats had a mere 213 yards of offense. Brady was sacked 3 times and frequently hurried. The Pats were 3/10 on 3rd downs and only made 2 trips to the Red Zone. Pittsburgh dominated time of possession nearly 2 to 1.

Of the three possibilities, Pittsburgh is the least favorable matchup for the Patriots.

But it's still favorable. Roethlisberger has been banged and beaten around all year. The Steelers don't have Mendenhall. And I don't think Brady and the offense played up to their potential when they lost down in Pittsburgh.

No matter what, the Patriots have to execute. No matter who they play, they'll be facing a team that has already won a playoff game.

-The Commodore

Patriots 49, Bills 21

The Patriots have plenty of problems, but one thing you can't accuse them of being is boring. An explosive offense and an easily trampled defense led to a regular season of very exciting games.

When the Bills beat the Patriots, the Pats started with a 21-0 lead then eventually blew it. On Sunday afternoon, the Bills took a 21-0 lead, then blew it. It was a remarkable symmetry, reminiscent of 2003 when the Bills beat the Patriots 31-0 in Week 1, then the Pats beat the Bills 31-0 in Week 17.

I like how well the Patriots offense has adjusted in the middle of games, but I haven't liked how poorly they've started. The Pats can get away with slow offensive starts against the likes of Buffalo and Denver, but against top tier teams like Baltimore or Green Bay, a slow start could lead to a quick end.

The Bills played their part in the Patriots' comeback. There were so many room service interceptions. And good playoff teams will not be turning the ball over so easily.

On the bright side, the Patriots have a week off. They will not have to play a road game in the playoffs. They have a tremendously potent offense with a diverse arsenal of weapons. And all other teams in the playoffs have their own weaknesses. In my opinion, the Patriots have as good a chance as any team, so long as the offense executes.

Patriots host either the Bengals, Steelers, or Broncos on the 14th. Saturday night in Foxborough.

-The Commodore

Patriots 27, Dolphins 24

It was ugly. And if the Pats were playing another team, it probably would have been a loss. Instead, the Patriots came back from a 17-0 deficit and with that win clinched a first round bye.

I've been saying it for weeks now. The Patriots' success and failure is determined by how well the offense does. The defense is what it is. In the Buffalo loss, Brady threw 4 picks. In the Pittsburgh loss, the offense struggled to get first downs. In the Giants loss, the Pats turned the ball over 4 times.

In Saturday's game, we saw the offense struggle in the first half, and the team was doomed. In the second half, the offense did well, and the team looked great. The Dolphins helped by turning the ball over. That's what alarms me. If the Patriots offense has a bad half, or faces a good pass rush, and they're playing a quality team, will they be able to come back? Can they depend on unforced turnovers in the 2nd half?

For this team to make a deep playoff run, the offense has to be amazing. And they have to be at least good on just about every drive.

They've got a bye, which is huge. It's advancing a round in the playoffs before the playoffs even start. But they need to play better if they want to advance. And it's not the defense that needs to improve (I'd argue that they can't improve), it's the offense.

Pats host the Bills on Sunday and can clinch the #1 seed and homefield with a win. I'm sure the Pats will also be looking to get a measure of revenge for their 34-31 loss to Buffalo in September.

-The Commodore