Why Not

Have a laugh at Wes Welkaaaah's expense

Giants 21, Patriots 17

Two plays can sum up this game. One was Mario Manningham's toe-dragging sideline catch in the 4th. The other was Wes Welker's drop, also in the 4th. Manningham was covered well yet brought his toes down, maintained control of the ball, and in one play brought his team from its own 12 yard line to just 15 yards shy of field goal range. Manningham reached his maximum potential in that moment. He made the play.

Welker's drop came with the Pats up 2, with 4:00 on the clock. Had he held on, it would have been 1st & 10 on the Giants' 22 yard line. The Patriots could have drained at least another minute off the clock and would have almost surely scored at least a field goal. And if they'd scored a touchdown, the game would be over. Welker had all 10 fingers on that ball. And it popped out. He didn't make the play.

The Giants made more plays than the Patriots. It's not rocket science, it's fairly simple.

There were plenty of times in this game that the Patriots were just a play or two away from claiming victory. They didn't make the plays. The Giants did.

It's not effort, it's execution. No sane person can question Wes Welker's effort. But when his number came up, he just didn't make the play. Mario Manningham did.

After the Pats scored to start the second half, victory was within reach. They never grabbed it.

17-9 Pats and the defense gives up a field goal. If the Pats respond with a touchdown, they're up 21-12 and in the driver's seat. Instead they went three and out.

The defense gives up another field goal. 17-15 game, Pats get the ball back, move it a bit, then on a 1st down Brady evades pressure, then throws deep to Gronkowski. He underthrows a bit, Gronk can't outmuscle the linebacker covering him and it's an interception. What was Brady thinking? Throwing a jump ball on 1st down? That was a cocky decision.

The Giants eat about 5 minutes of clock and pin the Patriots back on their own 8. That drive ended the play after Welker's drop. Punt, Manningham, a few more plays, touchdown, history.

Victory was out there. The Patriots didn't reach out and take it. The Giants did.

Looking ahead, there's little reason to despair. There is a great deal of talent on this team. There's room to improve, but there's a strong foundation to build on.

I think you'll see significant defensive retooling. As much as I blame the offense's lack of execution for this loss, the Giants did mount an 88 yard game-winning TD drive. It'd be nice to have a better chance to prevent that. A team can't be so dependent on half of its roster to win all its games and right now the Patriots are dependent on the offense to make every single play in order to win.

That needs to change. Safeties that know what they're doing. Cornerbacks that can cover one-on-one without being embarrassed. A consistent pass-rush. Maybe an OLB that can rush the passer.

Here's a weird, almost frightening thought: the Bruins are the clutchest team in Boston sports.

-The Commodore

Captain's Super Bowl Preview

Vegas favors the Patriots by 2.5 to 3. Which seems a little strange. The Pats were 13-3, and were the AFC's #1 seed. The Giants went 9-7, and were the NFC's 4th seed, even though they had the 6th best record. Of course, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 at Gillette Stadium in early November.

I don't want to play the underdog card too much here. As I said, Vegas is favoring the Patriots. Which means people are putting their money behind the Patriots. But the fact that questions like "Would you rather have Eli or Brady?" are being asked at all seems a little weird to me.

The Giants appear to match up well against the Patriots. They have a strong 4 man pass rush that can pressure Brady but also leave 7 men in coverage. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have the 31st passing defense, allowing 293.9 yards per game in the air. The Giants have a good QB, with a bevy of weapons for him to throw to. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and tight-end Jake Ballard who caught a TD against the Pats in November.

As bad as the Patriots' pass-defense has been, people don't seem to be noticing how bad the Giants are at defending against the pass. The Giants are 29th in yards allowed. Opposing QBs have an 86.1 rating against the Giants. What is the QB rating for Patriots' opponents? 86.1. Isn't that funny.

And since when has Eli Manning become an elite QB? I heard one pundit say that Eli's success is due to his not making mistakes anymore. Really? Doesn't make mistakes anymore? He threw 16 picks this year, 7th most in the NFL. He threw 25 picks last year.

He's been excellent in the postseason so far, with 8 TDs, only 1 INT, and a 103.1 rating. But his whole career has been defined by inconsistency. And he was hardly dazzling back in November against the Pats.

The Patriots lost that game because Brady wasn't as good as he should have been. They lost because they made mistakes like missing a 27 yard field goal. They lost because they turned the ball over 4 times. Brady threw 2 interceptions and fumbled. Edelman muffed a punt. The Giants scored 10 points off turnovers.

Eli Manning is the best QB that the Patriots will face in these playoffs. But he doesn't scare me. The November game was actually one of the better games played by the Pats' defense. People are talking about Ahmad Bradshaw not playing in that game and how much it helps the Giants that he's back. But the Giants were 32nd in the NFL in rushing for a reason. Bradshaw rushed for 3.9 per carry this year, and never once eclipsed 60 yards in a game.

And to be blunt, rushing the ball against the Patriots is doing their defense a huge favor.

This game comes down to one person. And his name is Tom Brady. How he throws, and how he's protected, and how he executes will determine if the Patriots win or lose. I know I've been saying it all year, but it is all about Brady, Brady, Brady.

The Patriots beat the Ravens without a fully effective Tom Brady. They won't be able to pull the same rabbit out of the hat twice. Brady needs to have a good game for the Patriots to win. And if he has a great game, the Patriots will win. No matter what Eli does against the Pats' defense.

One thing that unnerves me is that for the past few years Brady's tried to force the play in big games. He's thrown into double coverage with no margin for error. For example: that deep ball in the Ravens game intended for Slater. No need to try to be that perfect in one throw. He needs to realize that it's better to throw a couple good passes instead of forcing yourself to throw one absolutely perfect one. Because if a good pass is off, it's incomplete. If the attempted perfect pass is off, it's an interception.

I think Brady and the offense will execute on Sunday. At the very least, they won't turn the ball over as easily as they did in November.

Gronkowski's health will play a huge part in the Patriots' offense. He caught 8 passes in that November game. He's Brady's #1 target in the Red Zone, and he's a good receiving option to have if Brady is getting hurried. When Brady needs to press the panic button, he can throw to Gronkowski's general direction and Gronk will haul it in. If he's healthy.

Let's not forget about Wes Welker, though. Welker would have been Super Bowl MVP in 2008 had the Patriots been able to hang on. He caught 11 passes in that game. He caught 9 passes for 136 yards in November. He also had a 13 yard run. He will have a big game on Sunday.

The Giants are vulnerable against the run. They allowed 121.3 yards per game on the ground, 19th in the NFL. In November, BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran well at the start of the game, 52 yards on 12 carries. Then for some reason Ridley and Woodhead got more of the carries. They didn't do as well (combined 10 carries for 36 yards). This might have been due to Ellis' health, or might have simply been a play-calling mistake.

Look for Ellis to get the ball with regularity on Sunday. Not only do the Giants give up chunks of rushing yards, but a strong run can also slow down and wear out a pass-rush. Then of course comes play-action. Ellis can also become an outlet receiver, chipping a lineman then sitting in the middle of the field or the flat for a safe pass. J.R. Redmond style.

Brady will not look at Ochocinco unless he's clearly on the good side of a mismatch.

In the November game, Brady targeted Ochocinco 5 times. This was before we all accepted the fact that Ochocinco is not a significant part of the offense. It was Game #8. In the first 8 games of the season, Brady targeted Ochocinco 21 times. In the 10 games since then, Brady's targeted him 11 times. So from 2.6 targets per game down to 1.1.

Why is that a good thing? Because it demonstrates that the Patriots have adjusted their offense. Ochocinco was thrown to at key moments in that November game. And it didn't go well. Now, he won't be. Brady will be looking for someone else.

One thing this offense has done remarkably well this season is adjust, adapt, and evolve. Adjust to coverages, adjust to pass pass rushes, adjust to Ochocinco's inability to adjust, and so on. The Patriots didn't adjust back in 2007, they simply kept hammering away at the same thing the same way.

They've adjusted since November. The Pats have won 10 straight since that game. The Giants are 6-5 since that game. Yet somehow they've been billed as the red hot team. And give credit to them for their playoff wins. But they are prone to inconsistency.

I think the Patriots' offensive line will man-up and slow down the Giants enough for Brady to find open receivers. We can talk about schemes and strategies all we want, but football usually comes down to one group of guys outplaying another group of guys. It'll be up to the Pats' offensive linemen to protect Brady and make holes for Ellis.

I think BJGE will also slow down the pass rush and set-up a few 2nd & 2 situations. Eli will put up a few TDs, but he'll throw a pick or two. The Giants will score, and will have one or two painfully unstoppable drives. But they won't keep up with the Pats.

Patriots 34, Giants 27.

-The Commodore

Patriots/Broncos Preview

I finally figured out why Tebow is such a big story. He was an underdog, who already had believers/fans before he started "beating the odds." So he has the appeal of an underdog, but already had legions of supporters. Which is abnormal. Most underdogs come from nowhere with no fans. Anyway, that's my short explanation of the Tebow phenomenon, at least the core of it.

To the actual game, which I know is a weird thing to talk about this week.

The Patriots saw what Tebow did the Steelers on Sunday. Rather, they saw what the Steelers' defense let Tebow do to them. They will not let that happen again. They're not going to give Tebow man coverage on deep routes. They're not going to bring safeties up to the line. They're going to give the Broncos 6-12 yard curls, as they've given to every team this year. And Tebow will hit some. He might even hit a few in a row. But it'll be tough for him to repeatedly move up and down the field with just these intermediate passes. He's not consistently accurate enough.

And while the Patriots' defense has allowed 4,703 passing yards (2nd worst), they've "only" allowed 26 passing touchdowns (10th worst). They don't allow many big passing plays. Their longest allowed was a 58 yarder. They keep the ball in front of them. The Pats' defense also improves in the Red Zone. The Broncos' offense actually got worse in the Red Zone last week.

Denver can run the ball well. And Tebow typically doesn't turn it over. So the Patriots have to pressure them to score, to keep up.

That's why the Patriots offense will determine this game. If they can protect Brady, if the receivers and tight-ends can get separation, and if Brady does his job, then the Patriots win. I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but this is a 13-3 team against an 8-8 team. A 13-3 team that beat the same 8-8 team on the road, and now they're at home. If the Pats execute, they win.

What will the Pats offense try to do? Hernandez had a great game back in Denver. Look for he, Branch, and occasionally Ochocinco to be cutting across the deeper parts of Denver's defense. And ideally, that will create space underneath for Welker, even some passes RBs. Denver's defense has a few talented pieces, and a few not so talented pieces. The Patriots will use their extensive arsenal of weapons to get the matchups they want.

Denver's only hope on defense is to pressure Brady.

So the Pats' keys to victory will be:

#1:Protect Brady

#2: Be yourselves on offense

#3: Prevent the big plays on defense

I think they'll do all these. It'll be a close game at first, with the Pats pulling away in the second half. Patriots 38, Broncos 24.

-The Commodore

Pats Send 8 to Pro Bowl

The Pats and 49ers are tied for the most Pro Bowlers, both teams with 8 named to the roster. The Patriots have 7 starters. QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob Gronkowski, OG Logan Mankins, OG Brian Waters, DE Andre Carter, and DT Vince Wilfork. Matthew Slater was named as a special teams player.

The Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski picks are obvious. Brady is clearly the best quarterback in the AFC, Welker has 116 catches, and Gronkowski has 15 TDs. Mankins has become a perennial Pro Bowler. Brian Waters was a late acquisition, and has been indispensable for the Patriots. Wilfork has a reputation and Andre Carter was having a great year before he got hurt. Slater has been excellent on special teams and is perhaps the best open-field tackler on the team.

What does having 8 Pro Bowlers mean? Not much. It's a nice honor for guys like Slater. But I don't think guys like Brady or Wilfork care very much. Their eyes are on the postseason, and on team goals.

-The Commodore