“She just needs to continue to be cute and shut up,”

NY Post – Giants running back Brandon Jacobs has some advice for budding football analyst Gisele Bundchen. “She just needs to continue to be cute and shut up,” Jacobs said of Tom Brady’s wife at the MetLife Stadium rally for the Super Bowl champion Giants. Bundchen was extremely critical of the Patriots receivers after they dropped several passes in their 21-17 Super Bowl XLVI loss on Sunday. “I mean she’s supposed to stay out of things like that,” Osi Umenyiora said Tuesday. “But at the end of the day that’s their relationship and she has the right to say whatever she wants to.”

This is probably going to be one of my last Superbowl posts because I think I've basked in Patriot tears enough, however, I have mixed emotions about Brandon Jacobs saying, “She just needs to continue to be cute and shut up” when talking about Gisele. On the 1st part, I think she should Shut up and be cute secondly I don't know if this is breaking a code but if I were a player I certainly wouldn't publicly bash another players wife because I feel that would add more motivation to another team. Brandon Jacobs is an asshole, so I guess what he says shouldn't be taken that seriously.

But....... If I were Tom Brady, I would probably say this to my wife after she just finished bashing players that I'm going to be around for basically 8 months a year.

Gisele Needs To Shut Her Mouth

You can't do this stuff Gisele. Not only did you give the Giants extra motivation before the game by saying Pray for my Tommy, But you say this after the game, "“You (have) to catch the ball when you’re supposed to catch the ball. My husband cannot (bleeping) throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time. I can’t believe they dropped the ball so many times.”

I mean yea.... she's got a point. Welker, Branch and Hernandez all had drops. But wives need to know their roles in this situation and say it privately. But if I was a Patriot fan I would want Tommy to get rid of her tranny ass. He's gone all glitz and glam and he and his wife are just stepping on the little guys. Gisele is a curse, and everyone knows it.

Giants 21, Patriots 17

Two plays can sum up this game. One was Mario Manningham's toe-dragging sideline catch in the 4th. The other was Wes Welker's drop, also in the 4th. Manningham was covered well yet brought his toes down, maintained control of the ball, and in one play brought his team from its own 12 yard line to just 15 yards shy of field goal range. Manningham reached his maximum potential in that moment. He made the play.

Welker's drop came with the Pats up 2, with 4:00 on the clock. Had he held on, it would have been 1st & 10 on the Giants' 22 yard line. The Patriots could have drained at least another minute off the clock and would have almost surely scored at least a field goal. And if they'd scored a touchdown, the game would be over. Welker had all 10 fingers on that ball. And it popped out. He didn't make the play.

The Giants made more plays than the Patriots. It's not rocket science, it's fairly simple.

There were plenty of times in this game that the Patriots were just a play or two away from claiming victory. They didn't make the plays. The Giants did.

It's not effort, it's execution. No sane person can question Wes Welker's effort. But when his number came up, he just didn't make the play. Mario Manningham did.

After the Pats scored to start the second half, victory was within reach. They never grabbed it.

17-9 Pats and the defense gives up a field goal. If the Pats respond with a touchdown, they're up 21-12 and in the driver's seat. Instead they went three and out.

The defense gives up another field goal. 17-15 game, Pats get the ball back, move it a bit, then on a 1st down Brady evades pressure, then throws deep to Gronkowski. He underthrows a bit, Gronk can't outmuscle the linebacker covering him and it's an interception. What was Brady thinking? Throwing a jump ball on 1st down? That was a cocky decision.

The Giants eat about 5 minutes of clock and pin the Patriots back on their own 8. That drive ended the play after Welker's drop. Punt, Manningham, a few more plays, touchdown, history.

Victory was out there. The Patriots didn't reach out and take it. The Giants did.

Looking ahead, there's little reason to despair. There is a great deal of talent on this team. There's room to improve, but there's a strong foundation to build on.

I think you'll see significant defensive retooling. As much as I blame the offense's lack of execution for this loss, the Giants did mount an 88 yard game-winning TD drive. It'd be nice to have a better chance to prevent that. A team can't be so dependent on half of its roster to win all its games and right now the Patriots are dependent on the offense to make every single play in order to win.

That needs to change. Safeties that know what they're doing. Cornerbacks that can cover one-on-one without being embarrassed. A consistent pass-rush. Maybe an OLB that can rush the passer.

Here's a weird, almost frightening thought: the Bruins are the clutchest team in Boston sports.

-The Commodore

Captain's Super Bowl Preview

Vegas favors the Patriots by 2.5 to 3. Which seems a little strange. The Pats were 13-3, and were the AFC's #1 seed. The Giants went 9-7, and were the NFC's 4th seed, even though they had the 6th best record. Of course, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 at Gillette Stadium in early November.

I don't want to play the underdog card too much here. As I said, Vegas is favoring the Patriots. Which means people are putting their money behind the Patriots. But the fact that questions like "Would you rather have Eli or Brady?" are being asked at all seems a little weird to me.

The Giants appear to match up well against the Patriots. They have a strong 4 man pass rush that can pressure Brady but also leave 7 men in coverage. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have the 31st passing defense, allowing 293.9 yards per game in the air. The Giants have a good QB, with a bevy of weapons for him to throw to. Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and tight-end Jake Ballard who caught a TD against the Pats in November.

As bad as the Patriots' pass-defense has been, people don't seem to be noticing how bad the Giants are at defending against the pass. The Giants are 29th in yards allowed. Opposing QBs have an 86.1 rating against the Giants. What is the QB rating for Patriots' opponents? 86.1. Isn't that funny.

And since when has Eli Manning become an elite QB? I heard one pundit say that Eli's success is due to his not making mistakes anymore. Really? Doesn't make mistakes anymore? He threw 16 picks this year, 7th most in the NFL. He threw 25 picks last year.

He's been excellent in the postseason so far, with 8 TDs, only 1 INT, and a 103.1 rating. But his whole career has been defined by inconsistency. And he was hardly dazzling back in November against the Pats.

The Patriots lost that game because Brady wasn't as good as he should have been. They lost because they made mistakes like missing a 27 yard field goal. They lost because they turned the ball over 4 times. Brady threw 2 interceptions and fumbled. Edelman muffed a punt. The Giants scored 10 points off turnovers.

Eli Manning is the best QB that the Patriots will face in these playoffs. But he doesn't scare me. The November game was actually one of the better games played by the Pats' defense. People are talking about Ahmad Bradshaw not playing in that game and how much it helps the Giants that he's back. But the Giants were 32nd in the NFL in rushing for a reason. Bradshaw rushed for 3.9 per carry this year, and never once eclipsed 60 yards in a game.

And to be blunt, rushing the ball against the Patriots is doing their defense a huge favor.

This game comes down to one person. And his name is Tom Brady. How he throws, and how he's protected, and how he executes will determine if the Patriots win or lose. I know I've been saying it all year, but it is all about Brady, Brady, Brady.

The Patriots beat the Ravens without a fully effective Tom Brady. They won't be able to pull the same rabbit out of the hat twice. Brady needs to have a good game for the Patriots to win. And if he has a great game, the Patriots will win. No matter what Eli does against the Pats' defense.

One thing that unnerves me is that for the past few years Brady's tried to force the play in big games. He's thrown into double coverage with no margin for error. For example: that deep ball in the Ravens game intended for Slater. No need to try to be that perfect in one throw. He needs to realize that it's better to throw a couple good passes instead of forcing yourself to throw one absolutely perfect one. Because if a good pass is off, it's incomplete. If the attempted perfect pass is off, it's an interception.

I think Brady and the offense will execute on Sunday. At the very least, they won't turn the ball over as easily as they did in November.

Gronkowski's health will play a huge part in the Patriots' offense. He caught 8 passes in that November game. He's Brady's #1 target in the Red Zone, and he's a good receiving option to have if Brady is getting hurried. When Brady needs to press the panic button, he can throw to Gronkowski's general direction and Gronk will haul it in. If he's healthy.

Let's not forget about Wes Welker, though. Welker would have been Super Bowl MVP in 2008 had the Patriots been able to hang on. He caught 11 passes in that game. He caught 9 passes for 136 yards in November. He also had a 13 yard run. He will have a big game on Sunday.

The Giants are vulnerable against the run. They allowed 121.3 yards per game on the ground, 19th in the NFL. In November, BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran well at the start of the game, 52 yards on 12 carries. Then for some reason Ridley and Woodhead got more of the carries. They didn't do as well (combined 10 carries for 36 yards). This might have been due to Ellis' health, or might have simply been a play-calling mistake.

Look for Ellis to get the ball with regularity on Sunday. Not only do the Giants give up chunks of rushing yards, but a strong run can also slow down and wear out a pass-rush. Then of course comes play-action. Ellis can also become an outlet receiver, chipping a lineman then sitting in the middle of the field or the flat for a safe pass. J.R. Redmond style.

Brady will not look at Ochocinco unless he's clearly on the good side of a mismatch.

In the November game, Brady targeted Ochocinco 5 times. This was before we all accepted the fact that Ochocinco is not a significant part of the offense. It was Game #8. In the first 8 games of the season, Brady targeted Ochocinco 21 times. In the 10 games since then, Brady's targeted him 11 times. So from 2.6 targets per game down to 1.1.

Why is that a good thing? Because it demonstrates that the Patriots have adjusted their offense. Ochocinco was thrown to at key moments in that November game. And it didn't go well. Now, he won't be. Brady will be looking for someone else.

One thing this offense has done remarkably well this season is adjust, adapt, and evolve. Adjust to coverages, adjust to pass pass rushes, adjust to Ochocinco's inability to adjust, and so on. The Patriots didn't adjust back in 2007, they simply kept hammering away at the same thing the same way.

They've adjusted since November. The Pats have won 10 straight since that game. The Giants are 6-5 since that game. Yet somehow they've been billed as the red hot team. And give credit to them for their playoff wins. But they are prone to inconsistency.

I think the Patriots' offensive line will man-up and slow down the Giants enough for Brady to find open receivers. We can talk about schemes and strategies all we want, but football usually comes down to one group of guys outplaying another group of guys. It'll be up to the Pats' offensive linemen to protect Brady and make holes for Ellis.

I think BJGE will also slow down the pass rush and set-up a few 2nd & 2 situations. Eli will put up a few TDs, but he'll throw a pick or two. The Giants will score, and will have one or two painfully unstoppable drives. But they won't keep up with the Pats.

Patriots 34, Giants 27.

-The Commodore

Legacies on the Line

How Super Bowl XLVI plays out will have a tremendous impact on the legacies of four men: Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin, Tom Brady, and Bill Belichick.

If the Giants win, and Manning does well, perhaps even wins another Super Bowl MVP, he'll be regarded as the superior Manning. At least he should be.

While Peyton has always been highly praised, and has been putting up gaudy regular season stats for years, the game of football is about playing your best in the big game. It's about performing in the clutch, capitalizing on the big moment, making that one play. More so than any other sport because other sports have best of 7 series. In the NFL, it's win or lose, live or die, all in one game on one night.

If Eli wins, he's the better big game QB. He'd have 2 rings. One more than Peyton. He'd have an 8-3 playoff record. Peyton is 9-10.

Eli would also have a much better record against the Patriots, a team that most NFL teams have measured themselves against for the last decade. Eli would have 2 playoff wins against New England. Peyton is 1-2. Eli would have a career record of 3-1 against the Patriots. Peyton, when facing the Patriots with both Belichick and Brady, is 4-8 against New England.

So if Eli does well and helps propel the Giants to a Super Bowl win, his legacy will surpass his older brother's.

What about Tom Coughlin's legacy compared to his former boss, Bill Parcells?

If the Giants win, then Coughlin matches the Tuna in the ring category with 2. Parcells won 303 games as a head coach, Coughlin has 256 wins. Parcells' playoff record isn't staggeringly amazing. He's led teams to 3 Super Bowls, won 2 of them, and is 11-8 in the postseason. Coughlin has been two 2 Super Bowls, won 1 of them, and is 8-7 in the playoffs.

I don't see much separation there. If I told you those numbers were some mystery coach, you might say that Coughlin is just a step behind Coach X. But Parcells' name carries the weight of his reputation as a winner. So it seems like Coughlin is further behind than he really is.

Parcells gets praised for producing lots of coaching talent. Like Coughlin, and Belichick. But that also means he's had high quality assistants helping him win. Was Parcells a great teacher? Or did he have genius students? Probably both.

I'm not saying that if the Giants win on Sunday, then Coughlin is better than Parcells. But he's at least in the conversation. Looking at just their bodies of work, there wouldn't be much separating the two.

And as for former Giants assistant Bill Belichick, a win on Sunday would put even more distance between he and Parcells. Belichick would be 96 games over .500 as Patriots head coach. Think about that. Parcells had a .570 winning percentage, and .611 with the Giants. Belichick has a .643 winning percentage, .724 with the Patriots.

Belichick has 272 career wins (31 behind Parcells, 22 behind if you include playoff wins), a 21-6 playoff record, 5 Super Bowl appearances, 3 titles. A win on Sunday would be icing on the already impressive cake of Belichick's legacy.

The same goes for Brady. If the Pats lose then both Brady and Belichick will still be considered among the best at their particular jobs. If they win, they'll be among the best ever in all of sports at anything, not just their specific positions in their specific sports. They're both already great. Winning Sunday could add an -est to the end of that word.

What would make ring #4 so impressive is that this team is completely and utterly different from the previous 3 Super Bowl champions. The Patriots won those with patient passing and a playmaking defense. Now they're trying to win with a playmaking offense and a defense that tests the fans' patience.

For a coach and quarterback to grow and adjust so dramatically over a 10 year span is impressive. Brady has become the poster boy for the passing frenzy that is the NFL. I think Belichick saw Brady's potential being underutilized in 2006, as he was forced to work with Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel.

That's when Belichick went out and acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth.

And for 18 games, the formula worked. It just hasn't won Game #19. Yet. But if the Patriots win on Sunday, Belichick and Brady will have 4 rings, coaching and playing for 2 very different kinds of teams. Brady would have won as a "game manager" and as a "flashy" QB. Belichick would have won as an old-school defensive mastermind, and as an offensive "guru."

It's like a great actor who can do comedy and drama, who can play the hero in one movie, then the villain in another.

That kind of success puts you in the upper upper stratosphere of sports greatness.

Those are the legacies on the line Sunday. A good quarterback and a very good coach who can emerge from some shadows. And a great quarterback and great coach who can start casting even bigger shadows of their own.

-The Commodore

This Isn't 2007

Well, technically, I should say this isn't 2008 when Super Bowl XLII was played. Then again, it still isn't 2007 either. It's 2012.

Anyway, this isn't the same Patriots team that lost that Super Bowl to the Giants. Nor is this the same Giants team. Some key figures have returned. Belichick and Coughlin. Brady and Manning. Welker, Tuck, and a few others. But only 7 Patriots from that 18-1 team are still on the roster. Only 15 Giants are still on their roster.

The team's are fundamentally similar to their 2007 versions. The Patriots have a high scoring, high flying, pass heavy offense. They had 5 offensive starters named to the Pro Bowl. The Giants have a ferocious pass rush, and a QB who is now recognized as clutch, if not as flashy as guys like Brees, Rodgers, and Brady.

So will we get the same kind of game? Will Brady have 0.2 seconds to get rid of the ball. Will there be a new David Tyree? Will Devin McCourty see a ball fly just over his fingertips?

I think the game will be just as close as Super Bowl XLII. But the Patriots are different. For one thing, they have BenJarvus Green-Ellis and not Laurence Maroney. Maroney's hesitation and dance moves in the backfield frequently led to negative plays in Super Bowl XLII. BJGE will at least get to the line of scrimmage, maybe a few yards past it, and maybe he can help set-up play-action, maybe force the Giants' line to respect the run, and maybe give Brady some time.

The Patriots' offense is more dynamic than it was in 2007. It isn't just vertical passes to Moss with Welker as the outlet. Now the Patriots throw underneath to their WRs, and deep to their tight-ends. In 2008, Wes Welker caught 11 of Brady's 30 completions. Brady didn't complete a single pass longer than 20 yards, thanks to the Giants' pressure.

The passing game is more diverse now. Brady completed 0 passes to his tight-ends in 2008. That's just slightly different from what the Pats have done in 2012. It's also why Rob Gronkowski's health is such a big story this week. If Gronkowski can help Brady as an outlet, especially if the Giants send all 4 linemen at Brady, and leave Gronk covered by linebackers without chipping him at the line, the Patriots can move the ball at will.

Cartoon by Larry Johnson

But while the Pats offense is now more flexible, their defense has gotten significantly worse since 2007. They were an old crew back then. Now they're young, riddled with injuries, and loaded with subpar talent.

There are playmakers like Wilfork and Spikes. Then there is Julian Edelman playing as a slot corner, and Matthew Slater as a safety. And Devin McCourty getting neck cramps as he watches balls fly over his head to the receiver who has just smoked him. His nickname should be Parliament Light he's smoked so easily.

The Giants are no longer a surprise success story. Eli Manning is being touted as one of the NFL's clutch QBs. And it's hard to argue against that. a 7-3 playoff record is a 7-3 playoff record. And 5 of those wins came on the road. How is it that Eli and the Giants have found such playoff success, while rarely being considered elite during the regular season?

Some might say that they're clutch. I'm going to say that they're inconsistent.

The Giants are capable of brilliant stretches, like their last 5 games (all wins), or their 6-2 start of the 2011 season, or their 2007 playoff run, or their 12-4 record in 2008. But they're also capable of some painfully frustrating stretches. They lost 4 straight this year, and 5 out of 6. They lost their playoff game in 2008, after their 12-4 record. They missed the playoffs in 2009 and 2010.

Eli Manning is 7-3 in playoff games. He's had some good ones. Some bad ones. He'll be up against a porous Patriots defense that will let him accumulate yards by the dozen. But I'm not quite convinced that he's Mr. February.

There's a significant psychological difference between this Super Bowl and Super Bowl XLII: The Patriots won't have the pressure of playing for 19-0. And this season they've been playing for something a bit more meaningful, and that's the memory of Myra Kraft.

These are not the same teams that met in 2008. The Patriots' offense is more versatile. But the defense is also more bendable. So maybe the game will be just as close, only with a few more points on the board.

And the result will be different.

-The Commodore

Patriots 23, Ravens 20

The defense won this game. The defense and Billy Cundiff. It certainly wasn't the offense that won this game for the Pats. While I don't think Brady "sucked pretty badly," he wasn't good. The Patriots lost the turnover battle, Flacco in many ways had a better game than Brady, the Ravens accumulated more yards, and held the ball longer. But the Pats defense made some big plays in big moments and that's why the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl.

The defense did allow a pair of token touchdown drives, struggling to contain Rice and giving up chunks of yardage in the air.

But when Woodhead fumbled a kickoff return on the 28, the defense held Baltimore to a field goal (which gave the Ravens a 4 point lead instead of an 8 point lead). Spikes' interception might have been a big play if Brady didn't throw a pick a few seconds later.

In the 4th, the Ravens had a 3rd and 3 on the Patriots' 30 (48 yard field goal range). Wilfork stuffed Ray Rice for a 3 yard loss, and Baltimore was forced to go for it on 4th and 6 instead of kicking a field goal. The Pats did not allow the Ravens to convert that 4th down thanks to good coverage and pressure from the aforementioned Wilfork.

The offense had a chance run out the clock late but went 3 and out. The defense did allow a big 29 yard Anquan Boldin reception, which put the Ravens in field goal range. Then Sterling Moore saved the game by breaking up a pass in the end zone, then deflected the next pass. So at the very least, the defense preserved a tie.

Billy Cundiff did the rest.

The Patriots' offense wasn't bad all game. They just couldn't come up with many big plays. They struggled in the Red Zone, the Ravens got timely pressure on Brady, then there were the turnovers. Brady threw 2 picks, he also had one called back because of an illegal contact penalty, and he threw another one after an encroachment flag. He was not that sharp. He also missed a wide open Gronkowski and what would have been a touchdown in the 1st quarter. He missed a number of passes, and frequently threw into double coverage.

The Pats' best player had his worst game of the season, but because of Wilfork, Spikes, Moore, and Ellis, the Pats still won. And Brady will get a chance to redeem himself against the Giants.

Longest two weeks of the year. Let's party.

-The Commodore

Patriots/Ravens Preview

This is the 6th time the Pats have been in the AFC Championship in the Belichick-Brady era. Think about that. 6 times since 2000. Before the B-B epoch (1960-1999), the Pats had reached the AFC/AFL title game a total of 3 times.

Last week, the Patriots were fortunate enough to face the #12 seed in the playoff tournament. They also played the worst QB in the playoffs. And maybe that good fortune has extended into the AFC Championship game. Joe Flacco is the worst QB remaining in the playoffs. 20 touchdowns and 12 picks in the regular season. An 80.9 rating, which puts him 18th in the NFL, between Kevin Kolb and Carson Palmer.

But you don't need a great QB to win a playoff game. Just ask Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Or ask the Ravens, for that matter. The Ravens have an excellent chance in this game, although it all depends on one thing. Can they get to Brady?

The Ravens were tied for 3rd in sacks with 48. Suggs had 14 on his own. They can get pressure on Brady. Which means the Patriots will have to rely on guys like Welker and Gronkowski to get open quickly. They'll also need that offensive line to play one of its best games of the season.

If the Ravens do get pressure on Brady and keep the Patriots' offense in check, they can run the ball, they can play possession football, and they can squeeze out a win.

It's tough to respect Flacco, though. It seems like if the Patriots go up by even 4, then Flacco will find some way to screw up.

This game will be tough for Brady and the offense to rack up an absurd number of points. But it'll also be tough for Flacco and the Ravens to do similar. I think the Patriots will win this in a tight contest.

27-20 Pats.

-The Commodore

Patriots 45, Broncos 10

I tried finding an appropriate 3:63 Bible verse (Brady threw for 363 yards), and the best I could find was: Look at them! Sitting or standing, they mock me in their songs. (Lamentations 3:63). And maybe that can be about how much hype Tim Tebow got leading up to this game, and how much people forgot that Tom Brady is a pretty good QB.

All season, the Patriots have won and lost based on the performance of their offense. Their defense isn't good enough to win games when Brady struggles or turns the ball over. On the other hand, the offense is potent enough to win games on its own, even when the defense is terrible. Saturday night, the offense was at its best.

Brady was nearly perfect. His one interception was the only blemish on his performance. 5 touchdowns in the first half, 6 overall. He completed over 3/4 of his passes. He had fewer incompletions (8) than Tebow had completions (9).

One amazing stat struck me. The Patriots were 3 of 6 on 3rd down. What amazes me is that the Patriots got to 3rd down only 6 times. They got 31 first downs. That means that 25 times they didn't even get to 3rd down before getting a new 1st down (they got 3 1st downs from penalties). In other words, even if the Pats had been playing with CFL rules and only getting 3 downs per series, they'd have still moved the chains with regularity.

The line protected Brady all night. 0 sacks. That was a huge reason for Brady's monster stats. When Brady did have some pressure on him, he wasn't able to fully step into his throws, and that's the only time the Patriots' drives sputtered and stalled. For the most part, though, the line gave him time to find open receivers, and space to step into throws.

If not for Brady, Aaron Hernandez would have been the clear star of the game. He caught 4 passes for 55 yards and a TD. He ran for 61 yards. And he had a tackle. That's a diverse night. He left the game early but all reports say that he's alright.

Using him as a runningback was ingenious in its simplicity. When an opponent sees no RBs in the Patriots' huddle, they might go with a lighter personnel package with more DBs, and fewer big guys up front. Then Hernandez lines up in the backfield and the Pats run the ball against a defense designed to stop the pass. So simple, which is why it's so smart.

Hernandez did lose a handle on the ball twice, which makes me nervous. He juggled an exchange from Brady, and lost a ball after being downed by contact. His ball control isn't 100%. He's not Tiki Barber in the early 2000s, but it's something to note.

Gronkowski should endorse a line of vacuum cleaners. Everything that enters his airspace gets sucked in. Bibi Jones can be in the commercials with him for similar reasons.

The defense did well. The only touchdown they allowed came when the Broncos got the ball on the Pats' 24. But let's not compare this unit to 2003 and 2004. The Patriots' offense shot out to a big lead, and the Broncos have one of the worst passers in the NFL. When down by two touchdowns, simply not throwing interceptions isn't good enough.

How do you stop Tebow from his miraculous 4th quarter comebackes? You start the 4th quarter with a 42-10 lead.

The Patriots demonstrated why the option is not a viable NFL offense. Defenses are too fast for the backs to turn the corner. And they're too disciplined and coached too well to make mistakes. They know their assignments and containments.

The Pats' D-line got excellent penetration up the middle, as well as even pressure on each flank. That prevented Tebow from rolling out, which is when he's most dangerous. It also meant that when the Broncos ran the option, they couldn't cut back because Wilfork was already through the line and chasing the play from behind. Tebow was sacked 5 times, the Pats had 10 tackles for a loss, plus that 1st quarter strip-sack.

The effect of negative plays is always harsh on an offense. But on an offense that struggles to move the ball as much as Denver's, negative plays are murder.

The Pats played much better than they've played in their past two postseasons. There were no fake punts. In fact the Patriots' special teams executed very well. There were a few mistakes, but they were quickly atoned for.

Nobody's perfect. But Brady came pretty close.

The Pats face the Ravens next week. The other two offensive juggernauts - the Saints and Packers - are out. The Pats are unique among the NFL's final four. Which means either that they're the best of the offense-heavy teams, or were fortunate to play the Denver Broncos.

How weird is this? The Pats are in the AFC Championship and they still haven't beaten a team with a winning record.

Pats vs. Ravens, Sunday afternoon at 3. I'm excited. Let's party.

-The Commodore

Patriots/Broncos Preview

I finally figured out why Tebow is such a big story. He was an underdog, who already had believers/fans before he started "beating the odds." So he has the appeal of an underdog, but already had legions of supporters. Which is abnormal. Most underdogs come from nowhere with no fans. Anyway, that's my short explanation of the Tebow phenomenon, at least the core of it.

To the actual game, which I know is a weird thing to talk about this week.

The Patriots saw what Tebow did the Steelers on Sunday. Rather, they saw what the Steelers' defense let Tebow do to them. They will not let that happen again. They're not going to give Tebow man coverage on deep routes. They're not going to bring safeties up to the line. They're going to give the Broncos 6-12 yard curls, as they've given to every team this year. And Tebow will hit some. He might even hit a few in a row. But it'll be tough for him to repeatedly move up and down the field with just these intermediate passes. He's not consistently accurate enough.

And while the Patriots' defense has allowed 4,703 passing yards (2nd worst), they've "only" allowed 26 passing touchdowns (10th worst). They don't allow many big passing plays. Their longest allowed was a 58 yarder. They keep the ball in front of them. The Pats' defense also improves in the Red Zone. The Broncos' offense actually got worse in the Red Zone last week.

Denver can run the ball well. And Tebow typically doesn't turn it over. So the Patriots have to pressure them to score, to keep up.

That's why the Patriots offense will determine this game. If they can protect Brady, if the receivers and tight-ends can get separation, and if Brady does his job, then the Patriots win. I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but this is a 13-3 team against an 8-8 team. A 13-3 team that beat the same 8-8 team on the road, and now they're at home. If the Pats execute, they win.

What will the Pats offense try to do? Hernandez had a great game back in Denver. Look for he, Branch, and occasionally Ochocinco to be cutting across the deeper parts of Denver's defense. And ideally, that will create space underneath for Welker, even some passes RBs. Denver's defense has a few talented pieces, and a few not so talented pieces. The Patriots will use their extensive arsenal of weapons to get the matchups they want.

Denver's only hope on defense is to pressure Brady.

So the Pats' keys to victory will be:

#1:Protect Brady

#2: Be yourselves on offense

#3: Prevent the big plays on defense

I think they'll do all these. It'll be a close game at first, with the Pats pulling away in the second half. Patriots 38, Broncos 24.

-The Commodore

Who Do You Want the Patriots to Face?

If Belichick were asked this question, I think he'd say something like "We'll face who we have to face. Whoever it will be will be a good football team. Tom Brady is our quarterback." And that's sensible. But it's hard to passively watch this weekend's Wild Card round without thinking about who you'd prefer the Pats to face on the 14th.

Here are the scenarios:

If Cincinnati beats Houston, then the Patriots face Cincinnati. No matter what else happens.

If Houston beats Cincinnati, the Patriots face the winner of the Denver/Pittsburgh game.

So of the three, who is the best matchup for the Pats?

The answer is Denver. The Broncos are the only AFC playoff team that the Patriots beat. They're also, without much doubt, the worst team in the AFC playoffs. A token 8-8 AFC West team. And they don't matchup well with the Pats.

The Patriots defense can't defend against the pass. The Broncos can't pass the ball. So while the Broncos would be able to run around and accumulate yardage, they wouldn't be able to make significant gains in the air. They'd put up a few points, but it's tough to consistently drive the ball 80 yards and score with just a running game.

Simply put, Denver's biggest offensive weakness makes the Patriots' biggest defensive weakness a non-factor. So then it's a great New England offense facing an inconsistent and exploitable Denver defense. I'll take Brady in that bout.

Unfortunately, the Broncos are so bad that it's unlikely they'll survive against the Steelers. So would you rather see the Pats play Pittsburgh or Cincinnati?

It's easy to answer with Cincinnati. After all, the Steelers beat the Pats. The Bengals are 9-7. We don't see them very often, don't know much about them and, well, they're the Bengals.

They were 0-7 against playoff teams, 9-0 against non-playoff teams. Andy Dalton might not be an MVP candidate, but I'm sure the Pats' secondary can make him look like one. How well would their defense do against Brady? That's the key question.

They had 45 sacks. They have a few guys who can get to the QB. Their passing defense was 9th in the NFL. They only allowed 211.6 yards per game. So they could give trouble to the Patriots' offense.

Still, they can turn the ball over. Andy Dalton is not a proven commodity. I think Brady can beat their defense for enough points to win.

So I'd love to see Tebow and the Broncos come to Foxborough. Failing that, I'd prefer Cincinnati over Pittsburgh. But not by much.

The Pats lost 25-17 in Pittsburgh in October. Ironically, it was perhaps the Pats' defense best game as they repeatedly stood firm in the Red Zone, keeping the Patriots in the game. The Steelers defense didn't let Brady move the ball at all. The Pats had a mere 213 yards of offense. Brady was sacked 3 times and frequently hurried. The Pats were 3/10 on 3rd downs and only made 2 trips to the Red Zone. Pittsburgh dominated time of possession nearly 2 to 1.

Of the three possibilities, Pittsburgh is the least favorable matchup for the Patriots.

But it's still favorable. Roethlisberger has been banged and beaten around all year. The Steelers don't have Mendenhall. And I don't think Brady and the offense played up to their potential when they lost down in Pittsburgh.

No matter what, the Patriots have to execute. No matter who they play, they'll be facing a team that has already won a playoff game.

-The Commodore

The NFL MVP Shouldn't Be This Hard

It's a 3 horse race between Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees, but the obvious choice for the NFL MVP should be Drew Brees.

Here are the numbers for all of them:
Brady: 105 QB Rating, 5,235 Yards, 39 TDs and 12 Int and 65.6%
Rodgers: 122 QB Rating, 4,643 Yards, 45 TDs and 6 Ints and 68.3%
Breesus: 110 QB Rating, 5,476 Yards, 46 TDs and 14 Ints and 71.2%

I don't see how it can't be Brees. He broke Dan Marino's passing yards record and his own completion percentage record and had the most TDs in the league.

The thing that should kill Rodgers in this talk was out of his control, when Mike McCarthy decided to bench Rodgers in the final game and his back up Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and 6 TDs made people wonder, including myself.... Is it the system? We saw this with Brady/ Cassel before and I think Flynn excelling and putting up HUGE numbers may have spelled doom for Rodgers MVP campaign. Although his TD/INT ratio is stupid and his QB rating is record breaking, McCarthy may have taken it away by being a good coach.

The thing that should kill Brady is obvious, the strength of schedule. The Patriots didn't beat a team that finished with above .500 record. Brady didn't have one category that he finished ahead of the other 2 and although he did break Dan Marino's record, but Brees still owns it. And although it's out of his hands, not playing anyone and not beating anyone relevant kills his candidacy.

So with that being said, there is only 1 true MVP of this league and he lives in New Orleans.

Tom Brady Has Shoulder X-Ray (UPDATED)

Officially, the Patriots said Brady missed practice Wednesday for non-injury related reasons, but word is that he actually went out and had an X-Ray on his non-throwing shoulder. Everything has been reported to be fine, but obviously this is something the Patriots didn't want to get out.

I actually wonder if the NFL will have something to say about this, because it is kind of like lying about an injury. In the end I don't really care, because everything is said to be fine, but you can tell Belichick would have rathered if teams around the league didn't know that he was getting that shoulder checked out.

***UPDATE***

"The New England Patriots quarterback (Tom Brady) will not practice Thursday due to a left shoulder injury that reportedly required X-rays, a league source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter (ESPN)."

They are saying Brady is still likely to play against Buffalo, but to question if he should play at all. We already know he has been dealing with some elbow issues, and now you add this shoulder. I know we are playing for homefield throughout the playoffs, but I think that is far less important then the health of Brady going into the playoffs.

Pats Send 8 to Pro Bowl

The Pats and 49ers are tied for the most Pro Bowlers, both teams with 8 named to the roster. The Patriots have 7 starters. QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob Gronkowski, OG Logan Mankins, OG Brian Waters, DE Andre Carter, and DT Vince Wilfork. Matthew Slater was named as a special teams player.

The Brady, Welker, and Gronkowski picks are obvious. Brady is clearly the best quarterback in the AFC, Welker has 116 catches, and Gronkowski has 15 TDs. Mankins has become a perennial Pro Bowler. Brian Waters was a late acquisition, and has been indispensable for the Patriots. Wilfork has a reputation and Andre Carter was having a great year before he got hurt. Slater has been excellent on special teams and is perhaps the best open-field tackler on the team.

What does having 8 Pro Bowlers mean? Not much. It's a nice honor for guys like Slater. But I don't think guys like Brady or Wilfork care very much. Their eyes are on the postseason, and on team goals.

-The Commodore

Patriots 27, Dolphins 24

It was ugly. And if the Pats were playing another team, it probably would have been a loss. Instead, the Patriots came back from a 17-0 deficit and with that win clinched a first round bye.

I've been saying it for weeks now. The Patriots' success and failure is determined by how well the offense does. The defense is what it is. In the Buffalo loss, Brady threw 4 picks. In the Pittsburgh loss, the offense struggled to get first downs. In the Giants loss, the Pats turned the ball over 4 times.

In Saturday's game, we saw the offense struggle in the first half, and the team was doomed. In the second half, the offense did well, and the team looked great. The Dolphins helped by turning the ball over. That's what alarms me. If the Patriots offense has a bad half, or faces a good pass rush, and they're playing a quality team, will they be able to come back? Can they depend on unforced turnovers in the 2nd half?

For this team to make a deep playoff run, the offense has to be amazing. And they have to be at least good on just about every drive.

They've got a bye, which is huge. It's advancing a round in the playoffs before the playoffs even start. But they need to play better if they want to advance. And it's not the defense that needs to improve (I'd argue that they can't improve), it's the offense.

Pats host the Bills on Sunday and can clinch the #1 seed and homefield with a win. I'm sure the Pats will also be looking to get a measure of revenge for their 34-31 loss to Buffalo in September.

-The Commodore

Patriots 41, Broncos 23

Before a big game, it's very rare that Tom Brady is in the shadows of an opposing QB. Tebow got the talk, the praise, and the hype. And I think people kind of forgot that Patriot games are typically decided by how well Brady's offense does against the opposing defense. After all, this is an 11 win team, despite having one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Brady completed passes to 8 different receivers, but he favored the tight-ends. Hernandez had a monstrous day, 129 yards on 9 catches, plus a TD. Gronkowski had a quiet day, at least for him, with only 4 catches. Wide receivers only accounted for 12 of Brady's 33 targets.

I'm kind of worried about this tendency if Branch gets hurt. Or even worse, if they lost Welker. Ochocinco did catch a touchdown, he did make some key blocks, but he and Brady aren't only on different pages, they're reading different books in different languages. When Brady wants him to go deep, he cuts. There's no on-field chemistry.

The Patriots offense moved the ball, scored often, and didn't turn it over. That's a big reason why the Pats won. If you can't stop Brady and the boys, I don't care how magical you think your QB is, it's going to be a rough day for you.

Looking at Tebow's performance, and two things come to mind:

#1: He had a better day as a QB than he usually does. 11/22, 194 yards, and some of those incompletions were to avoid getting sacked. This speaks to how exploitable the Patriots defense is.

#2: He had a worse day than most QBs have against the Pats. 194 yards, an 80.5 rating. Last week Grossman had a 92.2 rating against the Patriots. Orlovsky had a 113.2 rating. The Pats average over 300 passing yards allowed per game. If a guy can't throw for 300 on this defense, they're simply not that good.

The Broncos did run the ball with alarming effectiveness. Their line created huge holes, and it was frightening how well Denver rushed.

Tebow ran for 93 yards. Of course, that doesn't factor in the 53 yards he lost when getting sacked.

As a team, Denver ran for 252, and averaged 8.1 a carry.

However, if you want to try to win a game on the ground, you'd better avoid putting the football on the ground. That's where this game was ultimately decided. The Patriots did not turn the ball over. The Broncos lost 3 fumbles. There's nothing mythical or magical about it. It's football.

Anyway, the Patriots are 11-3, and they've clinched their 9th AFC East title in the Belichick-Brady era. I know that we won't be having a duckboat parade for a divisional title, but these used to be rare up here. This franchise had only made 10 playoff appearances (only 5 of those were divisional wins) before Brady and Belichick. And in 11 years, that number has nearly doubled.

This has been something special up here in New England. It's still going strong after 11 years.

Pats host the Dolphins at 1PM Saturday.

-The Commodore

The Broncos Have More Than Tebow

This post will not mention the quarterback of the Denver Broncos. I will talk about him separately later today. This post is about a talented football team, that's playing well, even though we only hear about the quarterback. Who actually isn't playing well. But again, let's save that discussion for later.

As a Patriots fan, this game worries me. The Pats have a poor history against Denver. Tom Brady has a poor history against Denver. He's 1-6 against the Broncos, including his first ever playoff loss. He's thrown 11 TDs and 7 INTs against them. He doesn't even throw to Champ Bailey's side of the field.

Speaking of Bailey, there's some serious talent on the defensive side of the ball out there. Von Miller has 11.5 sacks, Elvis Dumervil has 7.5. They've also got Brian Dawkins and Andrew Goodman. They can cover receivers, and can pressure the QB.

Statistically, their defense isn't overly impressive. But in their current 7-1 stretch, they've allowed 20.3 points per game, and in their last 5 games it's been 15.6 per game.

Before their hot streak started, they were 1-4, but it's not like they were getting crushed. Apart from a 49-23 loss to undefeated Green Bay, they lost to Oakland by 3, to Tennessee by 3, and to San Diego by 5. So they were close to winning. They just needed to dump Orton, who threw 7 picks in those games.

They can run the ball. With their runningback and quarterback. They're the only team with over 2,000 yards on the ground. McGahee has 920 of them. They have only 60 fewer rushing yards than passing yards as a team.

This team seems to match up decently with the Patriots. I think that Brady and the offense will struggle to have a great game. I think the Broncos can rush the ball and eat the clock.

I'm not too worried about the Broncos' quarterback. To be blunt, almost any QB on the planet scares me in a two-minute drill against the Patriots' defense. What concerns me about Denver is their potentially stifling defense, and their ability to run the ball. They're a good all around team, even though we only hear about one of their players.

-The Commodore

Patriots 34, Redskins 27

Let me start with a paragraph overreacting to the shouting match witnessed between Tom Brady and Bill O'Brien. This paragraph will sensationalize the heated discussion between the Patriots' QB and offensive coordinator. This paragraph will not mention that Brady and O'Brien were moments later seen calmly discussing things on the sideline, sitting next to each other. This paragraph will make implicating observations and comments about the chemistry in the Pats' locker room, and will end with an inflammatory question: Who really calls the offensive shots in Foxborough? Brady or O'Brien?

All they were really saying was "rabble, rabble, rabble, rabble."

Now with that over with, let's discuss this game. I think all except the most foolish of fans out there realize that the Patriots defense is a joke. Slater and Edelman are getting significant playing time. There are occasional turnovers forced, but there are also big plays allowed going the other way. This defense makes bad QBs look decent, decent QBs look good, good QBs look great, and great QBs look godlike. This defense has the same effect on quarterbacks as alcohol has on women at a bar, it makes them look much better than they actually are.

Devin McCourty is awful. He would have had a pick if not for a roughing penalty, but he has looked vulnerable all season long. It's not just a sophomore slump, it's a sophomore collapse. He gets torched, he struggles to cover, and he commits penalties to compensate for his failures. Fans shouldn't be allowed to wear McCourty jerseys to games, because opposing QBs will throw footballs in their direction again and again. And that could prove dangerous to spectators.

This team wins and loses based ENTIRELY on how well its offense performs. Brady had a slow start again (8/19 in the first half), and the half ended 20-20. Then Brady played a great 3rd and the Pats took a lead. The offense could have put it away, but Brady threw that argument inciting interception. And of course, the defense almost blew the lead.

When Brady and the offense are perfect, this team cannot lose. When he's great, this team is very difficult to beat. When he's just okay or a bit off for a few series, this team kind of sucks.

Gronkowski is the second most important player on this team. He's hauled in close to half of Brady's TD catches. He is the new NFL record holder for TDs caught by a tight-end. He also passed the 1,000 yard mark in this game.

Is this team going to go deep into the playoffs? That depends completely on the offense, because the defense is going to get ripped apart.

The Pats need to play much better as they're on the road against a hot team that's leading its division. Pats @ Tebow next Sunday evening.

-The Commodore

Patriots 31, Colts 24

Remember in Gladiator when Russel Crowe is still fighting in Africa and he's simply dominating his competition. That's kind of what happened in Foxborough yesterday. There was no way that the Patriots would lose. The Colts were built around Peyton Manning. Even their defense was geared toward playing in shootouts with lots of passing and little running.

The Patriots had a mediocre 1st quarter, and a bad 4th quarter, and they still won. This was a preseason game. And even the crowd at the Stadium was like a preseason game. Late arriving, lots of families and first-time visitors, early exiting.

It's hard to praise the Patriots after beating a winless team. I guess I can say that Rob Gronkowski is probably not human. He's a monstrosity.

Belichick and his assistants have plenty of mistakes to show their players this week. It's a testament to how bad the Colts are that just two good quarters from the Patriots was enough to beat them. Even so, the Pats' defense allowed Dan Orlovsky to have the game of his life. 30 for 37, 353 yards, 2 scores, 1 pick, a 113.2 rating. It's kind of scary to allow a guy like Orlovsky to put up Peyton Manning numbers, even if some of that was in garbage time.

Everyone keeps trying to figure out how good the Patriots really are. Are they good enough to win a playoff game? Are they good enough to get to Indy? Can they beat the likes of Green Bay or Baltimore? There's no way that a Week 13 game against the Manning-less Colts will tell you if they can or cannot go deep into the playoffs.

To be honest, it will come down to how well they play on gameday. If Brady is at his best, the Patriots are almost unbeatable. If he's just good, it gets interesting. If he has a bad or even below average game, the Patriots have no chance.

Patriots travel to the 4-8 Redskins next week.

-The Commodore